Treasury Secretary Highlights Strong Growth Outlook as Markets Brace for Key U.S. Inflation Data

U.S. Economic Policy Signals Confidence in Growth

The U.S. economy is entering 2026 with the Treasury Department projecting continued strength under the administration’s economic agenda. In recent remarks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described what he called a “historic economic comeback,” pointing to faster growth, easing inflation pressures, and rising wages as evidence that the policy mix is working for workers and businesses.[2]

Bessent credited the One Big Beautiful Bill, formally the Working Families Tax Cut Act, along with new trade agreements and deregulation, as the main drivers of what he framed as a pro-worker, pro-growth strategy. According to his remarks, these measures are intended to sustain higher growth while keeping price pressures in check.[2]

Tax Season to Start Earlier as New Law’s Benefits Roll Out

The Treasury Department also announced that the federal tax filing season will start earlier than usual, with Bessent stating that this year’s tax season will begin on January 26, one of the earliest starts in a decade.[2] The move is designed to speed up delivery of tax benefits tied to the Working Families Tax Cut Act.

Administration officials argue that earlier refunds and tax credits will help strengthen household finances and support consumer spending at the beginning of the year. Bessent said the President wants money “in the hands of the American people as soon as possible,” framing the accelerated schedule as part of a broader effort to sustain economic momentum.[2]

White House Emphasizes Wage Gains and Jobs

In his remarks, Bessent highlighted wage growth as a key indicator of the economy’s direction. He said real wages have risen more than 1 percent since the President took office, with particularly strong gains for blue-collar workers.[2] He characterized these gains as “step one” in a longer-term plan to raise incomes across the board.

The administration also points to headline growth figures as validation of its approach. Bessent cited roughly 4 percent GDP growth over the President’s first two full quarters in office and nearly 3 percent GDP growth in the following quarter, even amid a government shutdown.[2] Supporters say those numbers show the economy is resilient despite political and policy uncertainty.

Markets Look Ahead to New Inflation Data

While the administration projects confidence, markets are closely watching incoming data that will test the narrative of strong, non-inflationary growth. Investors are focused on the next release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which will offer a fresh read on inflation after an unusual period of data disruption.[1]

Because the government shutdown interrupted the collection of October price statistics, analysts have treated some recent figures with caution.[1] Headline inflation dropped to 2.7 percent in November from 3.0 percent in September, and core inflation eased to 2.6 percent, its lowest level since early 2021.[1] Economists and traders want to see whether December data confirm a durable cooling in prices or reveal new pressures.

Fed Policy in Focus as Rate Path Remains Uncertain

The upcoming inflation reading will also shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. According to market analysis, Fed officials are divided between those who favor loosening policy sooner to support the labor market and those who want to wait to ensure inflation is firmly under control.[1]

At present, a rate cut is not widely expected until mid-year, with the Fed having already cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its last three meetings.[1] If inflation continues to drift lower, pressure will likely grow for the central bank to accelerate rate cuts; if it re-ignites, the Fed could face renewed calls to hold or even tighten policy.

Investors Track Consumer and Industrial Data

Beyond inflation, markets are also preparing for updates on retail sales, industrial production, and producer prices, which will provide a broader snapshot of economic momentum.[1] Strong consumer spending would reinforce the administration’s claims that tax relief and wage gains are feeding back into the real economy.

Industrial production and producer price data will help indicate whether businesses are still expanding and whether cost pressures are building in the supply chain. Together with the CPI, these figures will shape the near-term outlook for growth, profits, and policy.

Fund Managers’ Sentiment Remains Cautiously Optimistic

New survey results from S&P Global’s Investment Manager Index (IMI) are also due, offering a read on how professional investors view the U.S. economy and markets.[1] Previous results showed improving risk appetite among fund managers, driven by expectations of looser monetary policy and better global growth prospects.[1]

Those expectations now meet a more complex backdrop: an administration touting strong growth and wage gains, a Fed still wary of inflation, and markets parsing every new piece of data. How investment managers balance those factors will influence flows into equities, bonds, and other assets in the weeks ahead.

Key Points for U.S. Readers

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is promoting the administration’s economic agenda as a driver of stronger growth, rising wages, and easing inflation.[2]
• Federal tax season will begin January 26, an unusually early start intended to speed delivery of new tax benefits from the Working Families Tax Cut Act.[2]
• Upcoming CPI, retail sales, and production data will test the outlook for inflation, growth, and future Fed rate cuts.[1]
• Fund managers’ sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but closely tied to how incoming data align with the administration’s upbeat message.[1]