US Economy Shows Steady Resilience Entering Year-End with Tech-Driven Growth and Fed Caution

Recent US Economic Snapshot: December 29-30, 2025

The US economy on December 29, 2025, displays **cautious stability** amid year-end pressures. Key indicators point to moderate GDP expansion driven by technology investments, while labor markets cool gradually.[4]

Holiday consumer spending remains stable without excess, supporting services and logistics sectors. Energy prices hold seasonally calm, bolstering overall balance.[6]

Key Growth Drivers and Challenges

Technology-led productivity gains, particularly in AI and automation, offset higher financing costs. Businesses rely on these innovations to maintain margins during the holiday slowdown.[6]

GDP growth trends hover around **1.8–2.1%**, confirming modest Q4 expansion. Services, software, and logistics outperform, highlighting a shift to a technology-weighted economy.[6]

• AI capital spending exceeds $400 billion in 2025 projections, surpassing expectations.[3]
• Fiscal support from tax incentives aids corporate investment.[3]
• Offsetting factors include tariffs, softening labor, and government shutdown aftereffects.[3]

Federal Reserve Stance and Market Signals

The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive yet patient policy. Markets anticipate no immediate rate changes, with focus on inflation stuck near 3%.[3][4]

Unemployment estimates sit at ~4.4%, with job vacancies cooling but still elevated. Planned job cuts fell 53% month-on-month in November.[5]

Mortgage rates eased to ~6.19% for 30-year fixed, providing limited relief to homebuyers amid persistent affordability issues.[5]

Sector Highlights and Forward Outlook

Services sector PMI eased to 52.0 in November, indicating expansion above the 50 threshold despite cooling demand.[3]

Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates Q3 2025 growth at ~3.9%, signaling momentum before official releases.[1][3]

• Manufacturing faces tariff pressures, but services and tech absorb labor and capital.[4]
• OECD forecasts US growth at 2.0% for 2025, slowing to 1.7% in 2026.[3]
• UCLA Anderson describes the economy as "slowing but resilient."[3]

Strategic energy reserves remain stable amid price volatility, supporting year-end economic signals.[4]

Implications for 2026 Transition

Fiscal discipline discussions intensify as markets assess long-term debt sustainability. Innovation and data-driven policies define the trajectory ahead.[4]

Without systemic stress, the economy enters 2026 with resilience shaped by policy calibration and global interdependence.[4][6]