U.S. Economy Faces Data Delays and Rising Job Market Worries as Inflation Expectations Edge Up

Federal Economic Data Releases Delayed After Government Shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has announced new delays and changes to several key economic reports, disrupting how investors, businesses, and policymakers track the health of the U.S. economy.[3] The agency said it is still adjusting its schedule following the recent federal government shutdown, which affected the flow and quality of source data.

Personal Income and Outlays data for October and November 2025, originally set for separate releases in late November and mid-December, will now be combined into a single report scheduled for January 22 at 10 a.m. Eastern.[3] This release will include updated figures on consumer spending, income, and the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge used by the Federal Reserve.[3]

Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to produce a full set of Consumer Price Index data for October during the shutdown, BEA will rely on an average of September and November CPI figures to estimate October price changes in its report.[3] That workaround is important context for markets, as it may introduce additional uncertainty into inflation readings used to guide economic policy.[3]

GDP Schedule Pushed Back, Raising Attention on Fourth-Quarter Growth

The BEA also confirmed that the advance estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 has been pushed back to February 20 at 8:30 a.m., nearly three weeks later than its original January 29 release date.[3] The same day, the agency now plans to publish data on Personal Income and Outlays for December 2025, aligning two major indicators that shape views on growth and consumer strength.[3]

Further down the line, BEA said the second estimate of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 GDP, which had been penciled in for February 26, will be rescheduled because sufficient source data will not be available in time.[3] The report on Personal Income and Outlays for January 2026, also originally scheduled for February 26, will likewise be moved to a later date.[3] Officials emphasized that the release calendar will continue to be updated as more information becomes available.[3]

These adjustments mean that investors, lawmakers, and households will have to wait longer for a clear picture of how the U.S. economy performed at the end of 2025. The timing is significant as markets look for confirmation of whether growth is cooling, stabilizing, or reaccelerating after a year marked by elevated inflation and a highly watched interest-rate path.

New York Fed Survey Shows Weakening Job Market Expectations

Alongside the data delays, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points to growing concern among households about job prospects and financial strain.[4] The bank’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its December 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that expectations for finding a job have deteriorated sharply even as inflation expectations tick higher at the one-year horizon.[4]

The survey found that job-finding expectations dropped to a series low, marking the second time in six months that this measure has hit a new low.[4] At the same time, expectations of job loss also worsened, signaling broader anxiety about the labor market.[4] These shifts come even though overall spending and household income growth expectations were largely stable compared with recent months.[4]

Inflation Expectations Edge Up While Financial Stress Signals Increase

On prices, households reported that they expect inflation to run at 3.4% over the next year, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior month.[4] Expectations for three-year and five-year inflation remained unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting that while short-term price concerns have intensified somewhat, longer-term views are more anchored.[4]

The New York Fed also reported that the gap between higher and lower inflation expectations widened at the one- and three-year horizons, indicating more disagreement among consumers about the future path of prices.[4] That divergence can matter for economic behavior, as differing inflation views influence decisions on saving, borrowing, and major purchases.

Financial stress indicators in the survey showed a clear deterioration. Delinquency expectations rose to their highest level since the onset of the pandemic, suggesting more households are bracing for trouble meeting their debt obligations.[4] Yet, somewhat paradoxically, respondents were also more optimistic about their longer-term household financial situations, hinting at a belief that current pressures may eventually ease.[4]

What the Latest Signals Mean for the U.S. Economy

The combination of delayed official data and weakening job market expectations presents a challenging backdrop for economic decision-making. With key GDP and income figures postponed, markets and policymakers must lean more heavily on surveys and private data to assess momentum.

At the same time, the New York Fed survey suggests that Americans are increasingly worried about finding and keeping jobs, even as they expect inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the near term.[4] Rising delinquency expectations add another layer of concern for lenders, regulators, and families already facing higher borrowing costs.

As updated government figures arrive in the coming weeks, attention will focus on whether the official data confirm the emerging picture from household expectations: an economy where price pressures are easing only gradually while labor market confidence and financial resilience show signs of strain.