US Awaits Key December CPI Data Amid Labor Market Concerns and Tariff Debates

Upcoming Inflation Report Dominates Economic Calendar

US policymakers receive the December consumer price index (CPI) update on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. Headline inflation is forecasted at **2.7% year-over-year** for the second straight month, with core inflation expected to edge up to 2.7%.[3][2]

Recent data distortions from a government shutdown affected October and November collections, raising questions about prior readings. Markets view December's figures as critical for clarifying the inflation path.[2][3]

Labor Market Signals Mixed Resilience and Weakness

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index fell to **104.27** in December from 104.64 in November, signaling a softening jobs market.[5]

December added just **50,000 seasonally adjusted jobs**, with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.4%. Revisions cut October and November payrolls by 76,000 combined.[5]

• Consumer reports of "jobs hard to get" hit 20.8%, highest since early 2021.
• Involuntary part-time work reached peaks not seen since early 2021.
• Private nonfarm payrolls excluding health care declined, highlighting rising employment risks.[3]

Retail Sales and Fed Speeches in Focus

November retail sales data releases Wednesday, with consensus expecting **0.5% month-over-month growth** after October's flat reading. The control group for GDP estimates projects 0.4% growth.[3]

A heavy lineup of Federal Reserve speakers this week will address the economic outlook and policy. Comments on the labor market draw particular attention amid conflicting payroll signals.[3]

Tariff Powers Face Supreme Court Scrutiny

The US Supreme Court may rule Wednesday on President Donald Trump's emergency tariff powers. Online betting markets peg odds below 30% for upholding the tariffs.[3]

This decision could influence trade policy amid ongoing debates on inflation impacts from tariffs.[1]

Broader Economic Backdrop

Job openings dropped to 7.15 million per the latest JOLTS report, with hiring at lows since 2013. Yet, some forecasts see GDP growth reaching **5% in 2026** driven by AI productivity gains despite unemployment risks above 6%.[4]

Fed rate cuts occurred at the last three meetings by 25 basis points each, but no further easing is widely expected until June.[2]